Best Picture:
12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Philomena and The Wolf of Wall Street
Winner: 12 Years a Slave
The Dark Horse: Gravity
This is a pretty tight race between the historical epic and the space epic. They tied at the Producer's Guild Award but !2 Years has been winning most of the Best Picture awards (including the Golden Globe). But Gravity scored the highest number of nominations (10, tying with American Hustle). For the most part, the Academy likes historical movies so I think in the end, the award will go to 12 Years.
Major snub: Both Saving Mr. Banks and Inside Llewyn Davis were speculated to be heavily-nominated films but neither made it to the shortlist. Also, All is Lost, The Butler or Fruitvale Station could easily have been here.
Christian Bale (American Hustle), Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street), Chiwetel Ejiofor (!2 Years a Slave) and Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
The Winner: McConaughey
The Dark Horse: DiCaps/Ejiofor
For the longest time, I had Ejiofor as the frontrunner (and he could still win) but McConaughey has been winning a good number of pre Oscar awards (including the Golden Globe and the SAG Award). Also, the Academy loves physical transformations. That McConaughey's career did a complete 180 in the last 3 years or so is what works in his favor the most. DiCaprio's win at the Golden Globe and his previous losses could spin a win for him also.
Major snub: Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips), Robert Redford (All is Lost), Joaquin Phoenix (Her) and Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis) were all serious contenders and could have easily gotten onto the shortlist.
Amy Adams (American Hustle), Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena) and Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
The Winner: Blanchett
The Dark Horse: Adams/Bullock
Cate Blanchett had this award in the bag all way back in July when Blue Jasmine premiered. There is absolutely no way she's not winning this award. Personally I would love if Sandra Bullock pulled a surprise win but it's not happening. There's a slight chance that Blanchett could lose because of the Dylan Farrow NYTimes article (which strangely name-dropped Blanchett) but I seriously doubt the Academy would punish Blanchett for getting dragged into that mess.
Major snub: Most people thought Emma Thompson was a lock for her role in Saving Mr. Banks. Guess not. My guess is that Streep took her spot.
Best Supporting Actor:
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street) and Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
The Winner: Leto
The Dark Horse: Fassbender
Dallas Buyers Club is an Oscar favorite (scoring a surprising six nominations) and Leto's performance has been much praised. But Fassbender has also won some awards for 12 Years. It may be more of a toss-up than you think. The Academy loves 12 Years but they also love physically demanding roles. Still, in the end, I think Leto will take it.
Major snub: Tom Hanks for Saving Mr. Banks. Again, I'm surprised that movie was shut out of the major awards. Also, Daniel Bruhl for Rush could have been a surprise nomination.
Best Supporting Actress:
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) and June Squibb (Nebraska)
The Winner: Nyong'o
The Dark Horse: Lawrence
I know J-Law is like everyone's favorite person but I have a feeling Nyong'o will win the Oscar. I could be completely wrong. But the Academy isn't as starstruck as the Golden Globes and Nyong'o won the SAG award and the Critics' Choice Award. Back-to-back Oscar wins are rare in acting categories; Tom Hanks was the last one for his one-two punch of Forrest Gump and Philadelphia. And is the Academy really prepared to put J-Law on the same level as T-Hanks? My money is on newcomer Nyong'o. In my honest opinion, her performance was just better; she owned the film and made her tragic character heroic through her suffering.
Major snub: Scarlett Johansson for Her, Oprah Winfrey for The Butler and Octavia Spencer for Fruitvale Station seem to be missing from the list.
Best Director:
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), Alexander Payne (Nebraska), David O. Russell (American Hustle) and Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
The Winner: Cuaron
The Dark Horse: McQueen
Mexican director Alfonso Cuaron won the Director's Guild of America award and the Golden Globe; the victories seem to suggest he is the major frontrunner for the Oscar. The Academy will want to give Gravity at least one major award and this will be the one, honoring Cuaron as the team captain for the achievement that is Gravity. However, the Academy might want to have its Best Picture/Best Director be from the same movie which might give 12 Years the edge.
Major snub: Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips was a possible contender but for some reason the Academy chose Alexander Payne. Haven't seen Nebraska but it doesn't really seem like a Director's Movie like Phillips did. It should be noted that Greengrass was nominated for the DGA over Payne, which is interesting.
Best Animated Feature:
The Croods, Despicable Me 2, Ernest & Celestine, Frozen and The Wind Rises
The Winner: Frozen
The Dark Horse: The Wind Rises
Frozen has the edge here because it is universally beloved. I hadn't even heard of Ernest & Celestine and The Wind Rises until the awards season started. The Wind Rises, however, is respected director Miyazaki's final feature film which could give it the edge over Frozen.
Major snub: I don't know... Monsters University? Epic?
Best Foreign Language Film:
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium), The Great Beauty (Italy), The Hunt (Denmark), The Missing Picture (Cambodia) and Omar (Palestine)
Winner: The Great Beauty
The Dark Horse: The Broken Circle Breakdown/The Hunt
I've only seen one of these nominees (The Hunt) but The Great Beauty seems to be frontrunner after its Golden Globe win last month.
My picks for the technical categories:
Best Original Screenplay: Her (pictured above)
Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Best Cinematography, Original Score, Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects: Gravity (duh)
Best Costume Design, Production Design: The Great Gatsby
Best Original Song: Let It Go from Frozen
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club
The Academy Awards air on Sunday March 2nd on ABC. The ceremony will be hosted be Ellen DeGeneres for the second time. What are some of your picks for the wins?
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street) and Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
The Winner: Leto
The Dark Horse: Fassbender
Dallas Buyers Club is an Oscar favorite (scoring a surprising six nominations) and Leto's performance has been much praised. But Fassbender has also won some awards for 12 Years. It may be more of a toss-up than you think. The Academy loves 12 Years but they also love physically demanding roles. Still, in the end, I think Leto will take it.
Major snub: Tom Hanks for Saving Mr. Banks. Again, I'm surprised that movie was shut out of the major awards. Also, Daniel Bruhl for Rush could have been a surprise nomination.
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County) and June Squibb (Nebraska)
The Winner: Nyong'o
The Dark Horse: Lawrence
I know J-Law is like everyone's favorite person but I have a feeling Nyong'o will win the Oscar. I could be completely wrong. But the Academy isn't as starstruck as the Golden Globes and Nyong'o won the SAG award and the Critics' Choice Award. Back-to-back Oscar wins are rare in acting categories; Tom Hanks was the last one for his one-two punch of Forrest Gump and Philadelphia. And is the Academy really prepared to put J-Law on the same level as T-Hanks? My money is on newcomer Nyong'o. In my honest opinion, her performance was just better; she owned the film and made her tragic character heroic through her suffering.
Major snub: Scarlett Johansson for Her, Oprah Winfrey for The Butler and Octavia Spencer for Fruitvale Station seem to be missing from the list.
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), Alexander Payne (Nebraska), David O. Russell (American Hustle) and Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
The Winner: Cuaron
The Dark Horse: McQueen
Mexican director Alfonso Cuaron won the Director's Guild of America award and the Golden Globe; the victories seem to suggest he is the major frontrunner for the Oscar. The Academy will want to give Gravity at least one major award and this will be the one, honoring Cuaron as the team captain for the achievement that is Gravity. However, the Academy might want to have its Best Picture/Best Director be from the same movie which might give 12 Years the edge.
Major snub: Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips was a possible contender but for some reason the Academy chose Alexander Payne. Haven't seen Nebraska but it doesn't really seem like a Director's Movie like Phillips did. It should be noted that Greengrass was nominated for the DGA over Payne, which is interesting.
The Croods, Despicable Me 2, Ernest & Celestine, Frozen and The Wind Rises
The Winner: Frozen
The Dark Horse: The Wind Rises
Frozen has the edge here because it is universally beloved. I hadn't even heard of Ernest & Celestine and The Wind Rises until the awards season started. The Wind Rises, however, is respected director Miyazaki's final feature film which could give it the edge over Frozen.
Major snub: I don't know... Monsters University? Epic?
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium), The Great Beauty (Italy), The Hunt (Denmark), The Missing Picture (Cambodia) and Omar (Palestine)
Winner: The Great Beauty
The Dark Horse: The Broken Circle Breakdown/The Hunt
I've only seen one of these nominees (The Hunt) but The Great Beauty seems to be frontrunner after its Golden Globe win last month.
Best Original Screenplay: Her (pictured above)
Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Best Cinematography, Original Score, Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Visual Effects: Gravity (duh)
Best Costume Design, Production Design: The Great Gatsby
Best Original Song: Let It Go from Frozen
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club
The Academy Awards air on Sunday March 2nd on ABC. The ceremony will be hosted be Ellen DeGeneres for the second time. What are some of your picks for the wins?
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