Oscar Predictions 2015, Part 1: Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Actor

Boyhood

I love the Oscars. Even though it's all political and predictable, it's still fun to discuss and analyze how the Oscar season shapes up. I love this time of the Oscar season because the frontrunners are starting to emerge but there are still a few wild cards out there just waiting to surprise everyone. I'm going to just do a short blurb about each of the major categories (Best Picture, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor and Director) and picking out the frontrunners and weeding out the wannabes.

Best Picture
The Best Picture race is funny; for a long time, there isn't any clear frontrunner and then all of a sudden one film becomes unstoppable. I've been right most of the time (and yet I somehow couldn't predict Argo's victory 2 years ago!). Right now my gut is telling the race will be between The Imitation Game and Boyhood. Imitation has Oscar juggernaut Harvey Weinstein, acclaimed perfs from stars Benedict Cumberbatch and Keira Knightley and a WWII biopic premise behind it. Boyhood is a universally acclaimed box office success and it balances being epic and slice of life quite well. Both films are "safe" choices, meaning Oscar voters will feel comfortable voting for them instead of voting for edgier choices (Gone Girl or Whiplash).

Birdman

Birdman and A Most Violent Year have benefitted from some major pre-Oscar victories and I can see the Academy going for the showbiz satire Birdman. Selma, Unbroken and The Theory of Everything are vying for the "prestige biopic=victory" trend but I think they're going to remain "happy to be here." Interstellar is hard to ignore and I think it might find a place, knocking over a film with less buzz like Selma and/or Unbroken and/or Whiplash. These films are my predictions for the nominees with either Imitation or Boyhood hitting the home run.

Julianne Moore in Still Alice

Best Actress
2 months ago, I was sure Rosamund Pike was going to win for Gone Girl. The role had everything going for it: unanimous praise for a long overdue breakout role, huge box office success and an unfortunately rare complex leading role for a woman. Gone Girl has been facing some ludicrous claims of misogyny and I can see Oscar voters not wanting to fall on the wrong side of the debate. Other big players include Reese Witherspoon in semi-comeback movie Wild, Felicity Jones in The Theory of Everything and major frontrunner Julianne Moore for the Alzheimer's drama Still Alice. Out of nowhere, this performance became the top contender for the prize. I think the Academy is finally ready to award Moore after 4 nominations.

Amy Adams in Big Eyes

The fifth slot is wide open: some are saying Shailene Woodley for The Fault in Our Stars, Gugu Mbatha-Raw for Beyond the Lights, Anne Hathaway for Interstellar or Hilary Swank for The Homesman. A year ago, I was positive that Amy Adams was going to be a top player for Margaret Keane biopic Big Eyes but now I think she'll have to stick to being an Oscar bridesmaid if nominated. At this point, the fifth slot could go to anybody.

Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game

Best Actor
I think if Michael Keaton does not win for Birdman, then it could go to Benedict Cumberbatch for The Imitation Game. Jake Gyllenhaal is a very strong contender for Nightcrawler. Eddie Redmayne is hanging in there for The Theory of Everything but for some reason I don't think he's a top contender. Likewise for Steve Carell in Foxcatcher; everyone's thrilled that a comedic actor is going dramatic but word on the street is that the film is really gloomy and I don't think Oscar voters like that. Frankly, I think dramatic actors going comedic are more impressive. This brings me to Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel.

Ralph Fiennes in The Grand Budapest Hotel

Releasing over the summer, the hit film has been drumming up interest over the past few months. Fiennes has been deservedly getting some heat for the Best Actor race (he hasn't been nominated in nearly 20 years!!). I really want this nomination to happen especially since funny performances rarely get nominated. But there is also Jack O'Connell for Unbroken, David Oyelowo for Selma and Oscar Isaac for A Most Violent Year to think about, not to forget Matthew McConaughey for Interstellar.

So those are my preliminary predictions for this year's Oscar race. Look out for part 2 where I'll dicsuss Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Director.

Like what you read? Please like my blog at Facebook.com/MathurMarquee. Also, follow me on Twitter @HippogriffRider. Agree? Disagree? Sound off in the comments below!