2015 Golden Globes Predictions

Today is the Golden Globes! Look, Hollywood Foreign Press Association is not the most credible group. Their nominees are usually more star-studded than necessary and they usually have a few randomly out of left field nominations that do not make a lick of sense. But that's what we love about them, right? So here are the film nominations and my predictions for each category.

Boyhood

Best Picture - Drama 
Boyhood (will win/should win)
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Selma (could win)
The Theory of Everything 
This is a respectable list (I've only seen 2 of them--sorry!) and I think there are legions behind each of them. But the wonderful Boyhood is at the top of the list. From its unique production to its lifelike execution, the film is a major achievement. Selma could sneak in because it's so talked-about and relevant.
What's missing? Gone Girl and Nightcrawler, people! Hello!

Julianne Moore, Still Alce

Best Actress - Drama
Jennifer Aniston, Cake
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alice (will win)
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl (should win)
Reese Witherspoon, Wild (could win)
I will practice believing that Rosamund Pike will win this award but I am definitely wrong. Look, it's not that I don't want Moore to win; she's a heavily nominated actress putting out consistently great work so I'm glad she's having her moment. But Pike's performance was unforgettable. Witherspoon is also having a mini-comeback so she could pull a surprise win. But the award is Moore's to lose.
Who's missing? Scarlett Johansson in Under the Skin was a far-fetched choice but the 4 time GG-nominee deserved a slot.

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Best Actor - Drama
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher 
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game (will win)
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler (should win)
David Oyelowo, Selma
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything (could win)
Look, I really don't know how this category is going to play out except to say that Gyllenhaal and Carell are of the "happy to be here" crowd. The other three actors are duking it out and I can't pinpoint a clear winner. Part of the problem was that Cumberbatch's and Redmayne's film weren't really on my must-see list. Gyllenhaal is my guy but I don't think he'll win.
Who's missing? Ben Affleck for Gone Girl

Birdman

Best Picture - Musical/Comedy
Birdman or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance (will win)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (should win)
Into the Woods (could win)
Pride
St. Vincent
Look, I love Birdman. And I'm so happy it's the frontrunner. But Budapest is so funny and extremely well structured. I'd be happy for either film to win but lately I've been feeling like Budapest might be a better film to win as a statement about awarding films that are zany, wacky and hysterical (rather than just serious comedies) Into the Woods is the only musical in the category and it's star-studded enough that it might break a win. The other films are too low-profile.
What's missing? Begin Again is weirdly shut out from the ceremony in all categories. I'm surprised Annie didn't get  nominated even with its bad reviews. Of course, the GGs have shut out R rated mainstream comedies Neighbors and 22 Jump Street.

Emily Blunt, Into the Woods

Best Actress - Comedy/Musical
Amy Adam, Big Eyes (could win)
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods (will win/should win)
Helen Mirren, The One Hundred Foot Journey
Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars
Quvenzhane Wallis, Annie
This is a strange category because it is pretty random. Quvenzhane Wallis??? I wanna say the award is going to Blunt for her terrific performance in Into the Woods. Adams got this award last year so she may do a double header. I also hate betting against Adams. I don't want to discount Julianne Moore or Helen Mirren but those films aren't exactly on the awards radar this year.
Who's missing? Keira Knightley for Begin Again, Rose Byrne for Neighbors. Both highly qualified.

Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Actor - Comedy/Musical
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel (should win/could win)
Michael Keaton, Birdman (will win)
Bill Murray, St. Vincent
Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice
Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes
In my opinion, this is a race between Fiennes and Keaton. They're both great seasoned actors who have put in career redefining performances. I'd like to see Fiennes win because the role is way out there for him but since Keaton is the Oscar favorite, the edge is for him. The other three nominees don't really stand a chance but there could be an upset.
Who's missing? I'm a little surprised not to see Jamie Fox here for Annie. Also, any of the stars from the summer comedies.

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood (will win/should win)
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods (could win)
Arquette's been the frontrunner for a long time. I could see any of these nominees pulling an upset because it's a great category filled with talented actresses. I mean, this is a great list of women. Streep is Streep and she's singing. Emma Stone gave a performance unlike she's ever done. I haven't seen the other performances but they're both reliable actresses. In the end, it's probably going to Arquette.
Who's missing? Laura Dern, Wild, and Rene Russo, Nightcrawler, are licking their wounds, nursing their pride.

JK Simmons, Whiplash

Best Supporting Actor
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood (should win)
Edward Norton, Birdman (could win)
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
JK Simmons, Whiplash (will win)
Like the above category, this is filled with great actors but Simmons is a lock. The veteran character actor is long overdue for some recognition after a whole career of great acting. I'd love to see Ethan Hawke win because I just loved his performance as Mason Sr. in Boyhood. I could see Norton winning for his volatile performance but it might be too meta for the HPPA. Foxcatcher is quickly losing steam and if Duvall wins I will be very upset.
Who's missing? Channing Tatum was also in the running for Foxcatcher. It would have been cool to see Tyler Perry here for Gone Girl

Selma

Best Director
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Ava DuVernay, Selma (could win)
David Fincher, Gone Girl
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman (should win)ve 
Richard Linklater, Boyhood (will win)
Linklater assembling and pulling off Boyhood is an achievement worth honoring. But same goes for Birdman. And Selma. And Gone Girl. And Grand Budapest Hotel. These are great films with exceptional direction. I want Birdman to win because of the tricky blocking and great camerawork. It's a great film but so are the other ones. I don't envy the HFPA their task of picking a winner.
Who's missing? I would have liked to have seen Tim Burton honored for returning to his roots in Big Eyes.

And here are my picks for the other categories
Best Animated Feature Film: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Screenplay: Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Original Score: Birdman
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Best Original Song: Glory from Selma
Best Foreign Language Film: Ida (Poland)

I hope I'm right!

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