Best Picture:
American Sniper, Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Imitation Game, Selma, The Theory of Everything and Whiplash
Winner: Boyhood
The Dark Horse: Birdman
Like last year, it's a pretty tight race between Boyhood and Birdman. Boyhood seems like the favorite--and I'd still put money on it--but Birdman has picked up a lot of key awards from the guilds (producers, directors and screen actors). Boyhood got the BAFTA and the Golden Globe-Best Drama. Birdman famously lost the Golden Globe-Best Comedy/Musical to Grand Budapest. That film could surprise and pull a win. Wouldn't that be something? In the end, I think Boyhood will take it.
Major snub: I think a lot of people were surprised not to see Foxcatcher since that got a lot of nominations, including Best Director. I would have liked to see Nightcrawler, Wild and Gone Girl here as well.
Marion Cotillard (2 Days, 1 Night), Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything), Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) and Reese Witherspoon (Wild)
Winner: Moore
The Dark Horse: Cotillard, Jones, Pike, Witherspoon
This award is so obviously going to Julianne Moore that none of the other actresses are a dark horse and they are all the dark horse. This is Moore's fifth nomination and her first in about 10 years. She's one of the most acclaimed actresses working today so I can't complain too much about the lack of surprise in this category.
Major snub: Jennifer Aniston (for Cake) and Amy Adams (Big Eyes) were likely to take Cotillard's spot.
Steve Carell (Foxcatcher), Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game), Michael Keaton (Birdman) and Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything)
Winner: Redmayne
The Dark Horse: Keaton
No, I am not crazy. And there is a huge chance that I'm wrong. But for some reason, I feel like Redmayne is going to win over previous favorite Keaton. He won the Screen Actors Guild, the Golden Globe for Best Actor-Drama, and the BAFTA. His speeches have been well-received. His film is easier to digest than the prickly and frantic Birdman. Keaton could still win because he's a veteran in a comeback movie. So I might be wrong.
Major snub: David Oyelowo (Selma), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler) and Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel) should have been here.
Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Laura Dern (Wild), Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game), Emma Stone (Birdman) and Meryl Streep (Into the Woods)
Winner: Arquette
The Dark Horse: Knightley
This is another category with little drama. This whole award season has been a coronation for Patricia Arquette, which is cool since she's kind of a low-profile actress. If anyone's going to pull an upset, it's going to be Knightley; hers is the most conventional Oscar friendly film. It could also be Stone, to be honest. I'm excited to see Laura Dern pull a "Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart/Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook" and get nominated after being virtually absent from the awards talk.
Major snub: Jessica Chastain gained a lot of pre-Oscar nominations and awards for A Most Violent Year.
Robert Duvall (The Judge), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Edward Norton (Birdman), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher) and J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Winner: Simmons
The Dark Horse: Hawke
Like the above category, Simmons has been picking up every single award for this performance that he will walk away with the Oscar. I think Ethan Hawke might win because of the Boyhood love. I will boycott the Oscars if Robert Duvall pulls a surprise win. His nomination is a joke.
Major snub: You know, I can't think of any. Maybe Channing Tatum for Foxcatcher?
Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman), Richard Linklater (Boyhood), Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) and Morton Tyldum (The Imitation Game)
Winner: Gonzalez Inarritu
The Dark Horse: Linklater
In the last two years, films that are directorial achievements (Life of Pi, Gravity) have won Best Director while films that are more "thematically important" (Argo, 12 Years a Slave) have taken home Best Picture. I think this will happen again this year. Many of Birdman's strengths come from its skillful direction while Boyhood is a sprawling slice of life movie. Again, I could be wrong. Linklater deserves to be recognized for dreaming up this film and pulling it off against all odds. Or maybe Anderson will shock everyone and win!
Major snub: David Fincher (Gone Girl), Jean-Marc Vallee (Wild) and Ava DuVernay (Selma) would have been strong contenders.
Big Hero 6, The Boxtrolls, How to Train Your Dragon 2, Song of the Sea and The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Winner: Dragon 2
The Dark Horse: Big Hero 6
5 years ago How to Train Your Dragon lost to Toy Story 3. I think its sequel could win this year. It's a well-reviewed, successful movie. But I wouldn't underestimate the power of Disney (remember Brave winning over ParaNorman?). The only film I've seen is The Boxtrolls and I doubt it's going to win. I'm glad the Academy nominates these random non-blockbuster animated films so that they can get a wider audience.
Major snub: A LOT of people are upset The LEGO Movie was not nominated.
Ida (Poland), Leviathan (Russia), Tangerines (Estonia), Timbuktu (Mauritania) and Wild Tales (Argentina)
Winner: Ida
The Dark Horse: Leviathan
Ida got a nomination for Best Cinematography, which means it's really on the Oscar radar. So I am pretty confident it's going to win. I've seen it (it's streaming on Netflix, watch it!) and it does deserve a win. To be honest, I've been bad about seeking out these films so I don't know what else to say. Leviathan is the only other film I've heard about so I'm calling it the Dark Horse.
Major snub: I think the Swedish film Force Majeure was on a lot of people's shortlist.
Best Production Design, Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography: Birdman
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game? The Theory of Everything? Gone Girl was my pick but it was not nominated so this category is hard to predict.
Best Editing, Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash
Best Original Score: The Theory of Everything
Best Original Song: "Glory" from Selma
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Guardians of the Galaxy
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
Best Visual Effects: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
The Academy Awards will air on February 22nd on ABC. The ceremony will be hosted by Neil Patrick Harris. What are your picks for the winners?
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