I'm still processing how Donald Trump--liar, fraud, racist, misogynist, hysterical, under-qualified--won the presidency. There are a million reasons why, and others better suited than I have some hypotheses. But I am a pop culture blogger so I am curious what's gonna happen with Trump being in (barf) Oval Office. I think Hollywood and the media as a whole is going to have a strong reaction to the Trump presidency; he's too much a forceful presence to be ignored. But there are a few ways the Academy Awards could play out under these dark new times.
I don't mean to minimize the problems our nation and our world face with that man as President. However, this is a pop culture blog--and until March, mostly an awards blog--so that's where I want to focus. Hollywood has an effect on politics and obviously vice versa. Now, there are four major Best Picture contenders (among many hopefuls and long shots). And I think each of the four represent different reactions the Oscars could have next year regarding the 2016 election and the upcoming (barf) four years.
I've talked about Moonlight before in my Oscar Notes entry. Moonlight is the most important film of the year. It's the kind of film that we say we want when we talk about inclusivity in pop culture. Identity politics, and the importance of intersectionality within that, are really important these days. Moonlight isn't a gay movie or a black movie. It's both. It's like nothing we've seen before especially at the Oscars. This movie feels like a statement, even if it is not a direct protest film. Moonlight gives voice, dignity, and humanity to people who are often forgotten or ignored. Moonlight could win Best Picture because it's a call for equal rights and empathy--even if indirectly.
Probability of winning: low, unfortunately.
Even in the face of such swirling uncertainty, frivolity is of paramount importance. I haven't seen La La Land, but most people have said that it's a charming, romantic musical with impressive performances, deep hearts, and sweet nostalgia. It's a very white movie, but also a callback to old Hollywood glamor. Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling are stars everyone loves, and people could escape to this whimsical Hollywood love story. La La Land looks to be the perfect antidote: it's fun, has sophisticated, glossy visuals, and has lots of signing and dancing. If Oscar voters want a reminder of when Hollywood was great, this film is their choice.
Probability of winning: very high.
In the age of Black Lives Matter, with President Obama leaving the White House, the Academy could go for an important film about racial tensions and the experience of Black people across the nation. This movie, directed by star Denzel Washington, could be the answer to #OscarsSoWhite. The Academy might want to reward the powerful acting (Viola Davis is a lock for Best Supporting Actress) as well as the relevant themes. Denzel Washington and Viola Davis are also stars everyone loves and would have no problem selling this movie as the movie of the moment.
Likelihood of winning: Medium-high.
Hollywood is trying to be diverse and inclusive but white people still control. This election was decided by working class white people and I can see old white men voting for a movie that strokes their ego. This film looks like an affectionate, emotionally charged story about a family coming together in small town Massachusetts. The Trump voters in Hollywood would like a movie that paints white people--and white men in particular--in such a positive, warm light. I haven't seen the film, but I am sure it'll be terrific. But it does appeal to Oscar voters in ways that Moonlight or Fences don't.
Likelihood of winning: Pretty high.
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