Could Amy Adams Win an Oscar This Year? Can She?! Please?!?!

Five time Academy Award nominee Amy Adams is once again in the Oscar conversation this year. She has two well-received films working their way around the various festivals: Arrival, directed by Denis Villenueve (Sicario), and Nocturnal Animals, by Tom Ford (A Single Man). Though each film has their set of detractors--and Nocturnal Animals is turning out to be quite polarizing--I think Adams has obviously been praised to high heaven. Of the two films, most Oscar pundits are putting their Amy Adams eggs in the Arrival basket. Adams is on many lists of probably Oscar nominees for Best Actress, especially regarding her Arrival performance. I could see a nomination for either film (or perhaps some category fraud if they put her in Supporting Actress for Nocturnal Animals). But for now, let's pretend that Arrival will be the big Oscar movie for her.

But can she win? That's the question. For one thing, Amy Adams is well-liked enough in the industry that murmurs of "it's her year" are probably being heard around Hollywood. I'm not sure the murmurs will morph into the banshee call that preceded Leonardo DiCaprio's Oscar win earlier this year. Amy Adams is talented obviously, and she's on the border of "oh yeah that girl" and true blue household name. However, Amy Adams has had the bad luck of being nominated alongside surefire winners, at least most of the time. Please read Amy Adams: Always the Oscar Bridesmaid, which further explores that idea.

Word out of the film festivals is that Emma Stone is a knockout in the dreamy musical romance La La Land (co-starring Ryan Gosling and directed by Damien Chazelle, who's Whiplash won 3 statues in 2015). The film comes out December 2, but critics are raving about the performance. I'm sure Stone will deliver, and she's been due for another standout film after her breakout in Easy A. She's also a previous Best Supporting Actress nominee for Birdman. For now, I think she is Amy Adams' toughest challenge.

The other major contender is Natalie Portman for her Jackie Kennedy biopic, simply called Jackie (due out December 9). The film takes place during the first few days after JFK's assassination. The film is directed by Chilean filmmaker Pablo Larrain (Oscar nominated for the film No back in 2012). This is another critically lauded performance, and it seems like it just burst onto the scene. Natalie Portman won an Oscar for Black Swan in 2011, so the film itself will really have to impress Oscar voters (rather than just the performance) if Portman is going to win her 2nd Oscar so soon.

We also have Ruth Negga in contention for the interracial marriage drama Loving, by Jeff Nichols. The film has gotten strong, but not glowing, reviews. I'm afraid that Negga's performance might be too understated for Oscar voters who like Big Acting. But they do reward subtle work most recently as this year (Brie Larson winning for Room). I'm not ready to count Ruth Negga out, especially if the film is well received when it comes out November 4. I can easily see a big push for her if the movie is a hit.

Thankfully, Ruth Negga is not the only black actress in consideration. Recent Primetime Emmy Award winner Viola Davis is in talks for a nomination--even a win--for her work in Fences. The film is directed by Denzel Washington, who also stars, and it's based on the Tony winning August Wilson play. Both actors reprise their roles. Davis won a Tony for her performance (as did Washington) so people are saying she's a potential Oscar nominee, even though no one has actually seen the film (releasing Dec. 16). I could see an Oscar narrative built on Davis losing the Oscar for The Help in 2012 to Meryl Streep and on the goodwill for her historic Emmy victory. Viola Davis was also nominated for Doubt in 2009, but lost to Penelope Cruz. Regarding Amy Adams, the big question is: whose "it's her year" narrative will be more compelling to Oscar voters? If Davis wins the Oscar, she'll be a Grammy away from an EGOT!!

Meryl Streep has her role in Florence Foster Jenkins. Of all the films I've talked about, this is the only one I've actually seen. She would be deserving of a nomination (when isn't she?) but I would prefer a more different list. The film is made by Stephen Frears, who previously led Philomena to multiple nominations. Annette Bening is also in the conversation for Mike Mills' 20th Century Women (Oct. 8). Mills previously directed Beginners, which won Christopher Plummer an Oscar back in 2012. Bening herself is a four-time nominee, and word on the street is that the performance and the film are very good.

The other problem Amy Adams has, beyond just stiff compeion, is that there really isn't much urgency for her to get her an Oscar. I'm sure everyone will be thrilled for her, but I don't see a giant narrative building behind her. I actually think Viola Davis might get a push, but remember no one has seen the movie yet. Of course, this could all change if Davis is campaigned as Supporting Actress for Fences. That's a possibility, if Paramount Pictures wants a surefire win. That could allow Adams to sweep in, but Emma Stone is still a tough competitor.

Amy Adams has another issue to overcome. Arrival is directed by Denis Villenueve, who has made the critically acclaimed films Incendies, Enemy, and Sicario, along with the more divisive Prisoners. Neither of these films managed to score a single acting nomination. Sicario was the closes with Emily Blunt and Benicio Del Toro. Similarly, none of those films received nominations for Best Picture or Best Director. These films managed some technical nominations but seemingly Villenueve can't quite get to the top categories. Arrival could be the one to break the spell. Even if Adams gets the nomination, the Academy's lukewarm appreciation for Villenueve seems like it could be a roadblock to actual victory.

We'll see what happens when Arrival comes out November 11. Nocturnal Animals is due one week later on November 18th.

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