Oscar Predictions 2015, Part 2: Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Director

Patricia Arquette in Boyhood

Last time, I discussed my picks and predictions for Best Picture, Best Actress and Best Actor. Now I'll take a look at the Supporting Acting categories and Best Director. These categories are little easier to predict but only when it comes to picking the nominees. Finding the winner is a little tougher because there are solid reasons for each of the potential nominees. And we all know how much the Oscars love a good narrative. What's cool with these categories is that, save for a small number of repeat nominees, there are a good number of first-time nominees. Yum, fresh meat!

Best Supporting Actress
I think my pick for the winner is Patricia Arquette for Boyhood. Yes, the star of Medium is likely to be an Oscar winner. I can't pinpoint why Arquette is such a frontrunner except to say that a lot of people are recognizing how Boyhood is actually "Motherhood" in disguise. It's a role that could easily be forgotten among the "aw, look how much Mason has grown up!" but thankfully Arquette is getting her due. Jessica Chastain seems to be in the running for her 3rd Oscar nomination for A Most Violent Year. I am sure there is a "she's due for an award!" sentiment growing. I haven't seen the film but it's a wife role; I'd much rather see Chastain win for a role worthy of her talents (like, um, Zero Dark Thirty). Meryl Streep is in the running for Into the Woods but is that news to anyone?

Keira Knightley in The Imitation Game

Keira Knightley is likely to be nominated for The Imitation Game. I wish I could say she was being nominated for her talent but I have a sinking feeling this is an "important movie backsplash" type nomination a la Helena Bonham Carter in The King's Speech. Knightley has played Anna Karenina, Duchess Georgiana of Devonshire, Elizabeth Bennett and an indie songwriter in Begin Again and she's being rewarded for playing "the girl" in a WWII biopic? Emma Stone seems to be a strong contender for her work in Birdman and I'd love it if she won for the performance. Carrie Coon in Gone Girl is a left-field choice. Rene Russo in Nightcrawler and/or Laura Dern in Wild would be great nominees in place of Chastain and/or Streep but it's becoming unlikely.

J.K. Simmons in Whiplash

Best Supporting Actor
I know who's going to win this category. J.K.! No I'm not "just kidding!" J.K. Simmons has it locked down for his sadistic performance in Whiplash. He is an awesome character actor who just needed a role like this to become a part of the awards discussion. All right, since you had to suffer that bad joke, here are some other possible nominees.  Foxcatcher might sneak in Mark Ruffalo and/or Channing Tatum (my money's on the former). I just get the feeling that Foxcatcher, which I have not seen, is losing steam. I've heard rumblings about Tom Wilkinson for Selma,  Chris Pine in Into the Woods or Miyavi for Unbroken but they're just rumblings.

Edward Norton in Birdman

Edward Norton is giving Simmons some tough competition for his meta performance in Birdman. So is Ethan Hawke in Boyhood; similar to what I said above, Boyhood subtly becomes "Fatherhood" during its runtime. Okay, now the elephant in the room: the Screen Actors Guild and the Golden Globes nominated Robert Duvall for The Judge. Considering that film's bad reviews and low box office, it's clearly a nomination for Duvall himself and not his acting in that film. If he gets an Oscar nomination, I will be just--look, I try not to root against movies when it comes to the Oscars. But the fact that The Judge exists and is succeeding in getting nominations kills me. So I'm hoping for another actor to take this slot. Anyone.

Selma, directed by Ava DuVernay

Best Director
This is a category with a lot of major players but no clear frontrunner. Cases can be made for Richard Linklater for Boyhood, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for Birdman and Ava DuVernay for Selma. I think these 3 are very likely to get nominated. DuVernay's nomination would be historic because she'd be the first black woman to get a directing Oscar nom. I haven't seen Selma but I think it's building up to be a top contender. AGI and Linklater are both seasoned pros who are not oft-recognized by the Academy for directing, so it's nice to see them at the top of the list.

Gone Girl, directed by David Fincher

The last 2 spots are harder to see because there are a lot of "2nd tier" directors who could crack the top 5. I don't mean "2nd tier" to be derogatory; it's just that they are not sure things because there are so many of them. Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest Hotel, David Fincher for Gone Girl and Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game seem to be among the surest bets. There's a chance Whiplash's Damien Chazelle and James Marsh for The Theory of Everything might garner up some attention depending on how they play out with pre-Oscar awards.

Interstellar, cinematography by Hoyt Van Hoytema

Some ideas on the technical categories
Best Original Screenplay: Birdman and Grand Budapets Hotel are vying for the win.
Best Adapted Screenplay: It's Gone Girl's to lose, right?
Best Cinematography: It looks like Birdman v. Interstellar
Best Editing: Birdman? Whiplash? Boyhood?
Best Original Score: Gone Girl, Interstellar, Birdman
Best Costume Design, Best Production Design: For some reason, one or both of these might go The Imitation Game just for fun. I'm rooting for Birdman in the latter.

So once the Oscar nominations are announced next month, look out for my official predictions. By then, we'll have a better idea of what to expect when the ceremony comes around. Stay tuned!

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