89th Academy Awards: Predictions, Surprises, & Snubs

Oscar season is finally coming to an end. I have to say this year was an incredible year in Hollywood, and I am overall pretty satisfied with the nominations. So without further ado let's get into it!

Best Picture: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight
Winner: La La Land
Dark horse: Moonlight

I've made my peace with LLL winning. I really like the film, but would have liked to see Moonlight or Arrival take it. But the LA musical romance is a worthy winner for that dream ballet alone. And though I'm somewhat indifferent to HR and HOHW, there isn't a completely bad movie in the bunch.

Major snub: Jackie is the big movie I wish had more Oscars play. Silence as well if it had been marketed properly.

Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (HF), and Michelle Williams (MBTS)
Winner: Davis
Dark horse: Spencer

This award has been Davis' to lose. She swept the precursor awards without breaking a sweat. She's a fantastic actress and deserves every award they can give her.

Major snub: Janelle Monae is radiant and engaging in both Hidden Figures and Moonlight. Also Greta Gerwig for the under-nominated comedy 20th Century Women.

Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight),, Jeff Bridges (HOHW) Lucas Hedges (MBTS), Dev Patel (Lion), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
Winner: Ali
Dark horse: Patel

Mahershala Ali has had a breakout year and awarding him the Oscar for his commanding performance is the perfect cap. I think he is a great actor and should be awarded for this role. Patel's BAFTA win means he is a name to reckoned with.

Major snub: I really can't think of any. Hugh Grant gained some traction for his turn in Florence Foster Jenkins.

Best Actress: Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (LLL), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Winner: Stone
Dark horse: Huppert or Portman

Emma Stone's showstopping "Audition" number is a movie moment worth awarding, and the rest of her performance is movie star magic. Isabelle Huppert really rose as the secret star of this awards season and could ride her beloved veteran status to the Oscar stage.

Major snub: All-knowing Tree Goddess Amy Adams. AMY. ADAMS. And I think Taraji P. Henson put in some of her best work in Hidden Figures. Both deserved to be here.

Best Actor: Casey Affleck (MBTS), Andrew Garfield (HR), Ryan Gosling (LLL), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Winner: Washington
Dark horse: Affleck

When Denzel Washington won the SAG award, I decided to put my money on him taking the award. I feel like the SAG is a better predictor than the precursor awards that Affleck won. But Affleck is no slouch either. If Affleck wins I won't throw my TV out the window, but I will be annoyed.

Major snub: Joel Edgerton for Loving, Adam Driver for Paterson, and Sunny Pawar for Lion. These actors put in really strong work this year.

Best Director: Damien Chazelle (LLL), Mel Gibson (HR), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Kenneth Longeran (MBTS), and Denis Villenueve (Arrival)
Winner: Chazelle
Dark horse: Jenkins

I mean, a lot of La La Land's sequences are imaginative and visually marvelous. A lot of one-takes, cool camerawork, and expressive editing. I'd like for Jenkins to win because Moonlight is purely poetic. But this is a good crop of directors, though I'd like to switch out Gibson for someone like...

Major snub:...Jon Favreau for the Jungle Book. I know it was a huge long shot, completely unrealistic. But the man pulled off something quite miraculous: a movie that relies on visual effects that doesn't lose its heart or humanity. Also Scorese (Silence) could have gotten in.

Best Animated Feature: Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, The Red Turtle, and Zootopia
Winner: Zootopia
Dark horse: Kubo

With Kubo getting a Best Visual Effects nom--rare for an animated movie--it's clear that the film is on the Academy's radar. Whether that channels into a win over one of Disney's biggest and respected hits, I can't tell you. I like both films, and Moana as well, so this is a fun category to watch.

Major snub: I'm not sure. Finding Dory didn't get a hugely warm reception though it was pretty well-liked.

And now for the the other categories. Now La La Land is such an Oscar favorite that some predict it could sweep in most of the technical categories. I'm not wholly convinced but I'm also not above putting in two winners for each category just to be safe.

Best Foreign Language Film: The Salesman from Iran
Best Original Screenplay: MBTS or LLL
Best Adapted Screenplay: Moonlight (or maybe Arrival or HF)
Best Documentary Feature: OJ: Made in America
Best Score:LLL
Best Song: "City of Stars" from LLL
Best Film Editing: LLL or HR
Best Sound Editing: HR or LLL or Arrival
Best Sound Mixing: LLL
Best Visual Effects: The Jungle Book
Best Production Design: LLL or Fantastic Beasts or Arrival
Best Costume Design: Jackie or LLL
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Star Trek Beyond
Best Animated Short: Piper
Best Live-Action Short: Ennemies Interieurs
Best Documentary Short: Extremis

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