Normally when people talk about the Oscars, they talk about the biggest categories: Best Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor. And while the below-the-line categories are important and discussed, they don't get the attention or headlines This year, the Best Adapted Screenplay is stacked. The nominees are all Best Picture nominees, and they are all well-respected movies with lots of nominations around the different categories.
Here are the five nominees: Arrival (Eric Heisserer, based on the short story "Story of Your Life"); Fences (August Wilson, based on his play); Hidden Figures (Theodore Melfi and Alison Schroeder, based on the book of the same name); Lion (Luke Davies, based on Saroo Brierly's memoir); and Moonlight (Barry Jenkins, based on the play In Moonlight Black Boys Look Blue). Moonlight and Arrival have the most nominations this year (they both have eight), while Lion has 6, Fences has 4, and Hidden Figures has 3. And frankly I can't predict what film is going to win Best Adapted Screenplay.
For a while, the frontrunner was Moonlight. There was a mild controversy about the film being placed in the Adapted category, since the play it was based on has never been produced. Some peiple--myself included--thought that it was put there for an easy win since Best Original Screenplay has Manchester by the Sea and La La Land duking it out. Moonlight is still the frontrunner according to many Oscar experts. It's a little harder to look at Oscar precursor awards, since some of them (like BAFTA and the Writers Guild) put Moonlight in Original. And there are rumors about Oscar voters voting against something if they believe it belongs in a different category. Frankly it's absurd to get mad about category fraud because an Oscar winner is still an Oscar winner; in five years no one will care whether Barry Jenkins won an Original or Adapted Screenplay award!
Because Moonlight's Best Picture/Director chances are slipping away, winning the Screenplay award would be the next best thing. But I'm finding it hard to discount Hidden Figures as a box office smash hit and a beacon of hope for black women on screen. Hidden Figures came out exactly at the right time both in terms of box office and getting into the Oscar conversation. I can see the Academy wanting to give the film a win for one of its three nominations. Best Picture seems unlikely. Best Supporting Actress nominee Octavia Spencer will have to lose to Viola Davis for Fences. So Best Adapted Screenplay might be Hidden Figures' best shot. Let's not forget that Mahershala Ali is a guaranteed Best Supporting Actor winner for Moonlight, so that film won't go home empty-handed either.
Fences is already taking home at least one award (Viola Davis) and I'm also putting money on Denzel Washington winning Best Actor. So the Academy could award esteemed playwright August Wilson posthumously (he passed away in 2001).Arrival won the Critics Choice Award for Best Adapted Screenplay, and could take the Writers Guild Award and BAFTA award since Moonlight is in the Original category there. I just don't see the Academy voting to award a science fiction movie. Movies like this are meant for the technical awards. Lion has the vibe of an Oscar also-ran. I loved the movie, and it has some goodwill since it's been nominated for many different awards. But I don't see the film winning this award over the other nominees.
For now, the award is between Moonlight and Hidden Figures. I'd bet on Moonlight. The poetic film is beloved by the industry and it's such a powerful screenplay. I could see any of the films winning honestly. They have all made stellar contributions to moviemaking this year, and provided unique worlds for us to escape into and think about long after the end credits.
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