Predicting the Best Actress/Supporting Actress Oscars (What a Mess!)

2015 was a really interesting year for films. The Oscars are shaping up to be a fascinating competition. Sure we have some frontrunners, and some vague ideas about what could/should win. This year, the Academy Award for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress categories are chaos. We have two examples of possible category fraud, two frontrunners, and a whole bunch of wild cards. Prepare yourself for a looooong post, kids!

The curious case of Rooney Mara & Alicia Vikander
Rooney Mara stars in the acclaimed romance Carol, along with Cate Blanchett. If this film were about a heterosexual romance, both actors would be campaigning for Best Actor/Actress. However, since the film stars two women, the Weinstein Company, which is distributing the film, doesn't want its two stars to cancel each other out. So they made the decision to campaign Rooney Mara as Supporting (probably because Blanchett is the title character).

Alicia Vikander stars in the awards bait movie The Danish Girl (pictured above). Much like last year's The Theory of Everything (which won Danish Girl star Eddie Redmayne an Oscar), the film belongs as much to its lead actress as it does its lead actor. Felicity Jones got the Best Actress nom for The Theory of Everything, but Vikander is being campaigned for Supporting Role. Vikander has another role for which an Oscar nom is possible, the sci-fi thriller Ex Machina.

So here's the funny bit. Both Mara and Vikander have received pre-Oscar nominations in both Actress and Supporting Actress. The Golden Globes has the ability to override the campaigned-for category and nominate an actor in any category they please. Both Mara and Vikander got nominations for Best Actress-Drama (Mara competes against her Carol co-star Blanchett). Most of the other pre-Oscar nominations put Mara in Supporting Actress (including the SAG Award), however some put her in Actress. Vikander on the other has always been put in Supporting Actress, except for the Golden Globes.

I bring up Ex Machina (pictured above) for one crucial reason. Ex Machina released back in April, but the strong critical reception has brought the film back in critical opinion. Alicia Vikander's breakthrough year kept her in attention and the film with it. If the Oscars like the film enough, she could get a nomination. However, the Academy has a rule that an actor can't compete with herself. So Vikander could lose the nomination by having two competing performances. Like the Golden Globes, the Academy can nominate a performance in any category (Kate Winslet won Best Actress for The Reader though she was campaigned for Supporting Role). So essentially Vikander can get a nom for Best Actress-The Danish Girl and Best Supporting Actress-Ex Machina, or just one, or neither.

Right now, I'm just talking about nominations. However, if Rooney Mara gets a nom for Best Actress, she will most certainly lose it (see below). If she gets the nomination for Supporting Actress, it's hers to lose at this point. In a weird way, Mara should hope for the Supporting Actress nom even though it feels like category fraud. Alicia Vikander, on the other hand, is not a major frontrunner for either category or either performance.

The two frontrunners, Brie Larson & Saoirse Ronan
There are two frontrunners for the Academy Award for Best Actress: Brie Larson for her riveting work in Room, and Saoirse Ronan for her harrowing work in Brooklyn. If I had to put money on it, I'd say Brie Larson will win. Room is an emotionally devastating and psychologically complex film (read my review here), and I think it feels more "important" than the simple but effective romance Brooklyn. i loved both films, and both are in my top 5 of 2015. Saorise Ronan carries the entirety of Brooklyn on her shoulders and it is amazing work. Older Oscar voters might vote for the nostalgic glow of the film. If either actress won, I would be satisfied.

The wild cards
There are a number of "possible, but not definite" nominees. Jennifer Lawrence for Joy (making money, mixed reviews) is another wild card. Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful 8 is a likely nominee. Cate Blanchett is likely to be nominated for her work in Carol. Charlotte Rampling for the drama 45 years might get in as well. Kristen Stewart has been in the conversation for Clouds of Sils Maria. Helen Mirren has two films where she could break into the awards race Woman in Gold and Trumbo (both films got mixed reviews but she's Helen Mirren). Jane Fonda gained some momentum for Youth but her cameo might be too short. Melissa McCarthy for Spy...maybe? I'm pulling for Elizabeth Banks in Love & Mercy, one of my favorite performances of the year though she hasn't had much momentum. But she could pull a Maggie Gyllenhall/Jacki Weaver/Laura Dern and get herself an out of nowhere nomination.

For me, the biggest question mark in the 2016 Oscars is Charlize Theron for her career defining portrayal of Imperator Furiosa in Mad Max: Fury Road. She completely owned the film, and her performance was out of this world. Because leading roles for women are rare (in general and in science fiction), Furiosa stands tall. Fury Road has been gaining some momentum in the awards race, for the technical awards and possibly Best Director and Best Picture. Whether Theron can break into the acting category is anybody's guess.

Most years the female acting categories can be predictable or boring. This year, however, the categories are major chaos. It'll be exciting to see how the categories will turn out. Once the nominations are out later this month, check back here for my official predictions.

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