Let's Talk About the Best Actor Race (Spoiler alert: it's not that interesting)

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Does anyone even care about men these days?! When it comes to the Academy Awards this season, it looks like the answer is "oh, right, they give awards to men too..." While Viola Davis and Amy Adams and Emma Stone and Ruth Negga and Natalie Portman and many, many more are duking it out, it looks like the Best Actor category is without a frontrunner. A few frontrunners could pop up at any time; the Oscar season is long and fickle enough that things can change at any moment.

And I don't want to imply that this year's Oscar race is completely devoid of possible nominees and winners. Despite Bryce Dallas Howard not being forced to wear high heels in Jurassic World 2, Hollywood sexism isn't over so the majority of the films being talked about are heavily male-driven. It's just that no one has really stood out with an "it's his year" film like Emma Stone or Viola Davis.

Casey Affleck, Manchester By the Sea

If I had to put money down on a winner right now, I'd point to Casey Affleck. The actor was previously nominated in 2009 for The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford, and that was a great performance. Affleck stars in the crowd-pleasing drama Manchester by the Sea and his performance has been much praised. I haven't see the film yet (it comes out November 18) but it's on the shortlist for the Best Picture winner. I'd be happy for Affleck to win; he's a good actor. But he isn't a Dicaps or a McConaughey level star that needs to win an award for any movie that's eligible like those guys.

Ryan Gosling stars in the major Best Picture frontrunner La La Land, alongside Best Actress frontrunner Emma Stone. Curiously, there hasn't been much excitement over Gosling getting an Oscar nomination. I feel like his nomination could be the result of back splash from Emma Stone, and the film itself. It is pretty rare for a male actor to be swept in the after glow of his leading lady; usually it's the other way around. Tom Hanks could ride box office glory and his immense goodwill to a nomination for Sully. This film is proving to be especially popular with audiences, and seems like it could do well with Oscar voters. Tom Hanks has 2 Oscars (Forrest Gump in 1994 and Philadelphia in 1993), so I can't say whether he could build up the momentum for a win or even a nomination. As well-liked as Tom Hanks is in Sully, I don't think this is the performance to carry him to a 3rd award.

Denzel Washington in the stage production of Fences

Denzel Washington is an interesting case. He's directing Fences, the film adaptation of the play for which he won a Tony Award. No one has seen the movie yet, but Washington is a hard figure to dismiss. He has two Academy Awards (Glory, 1989, and Training Day, 2001), so like Tom Hanks, I don't see much hype around him being given a third statue. The performance would have to out of this world--and it most likely could be!--like Daniel Day-Lewis winning for Lincoln in 2012. We'll see how the film plays when it opens December 16. 

The big question mark this year is Nate Parker in The Birth of a Nation. 9 months ago, the film and his performance looked like a major frontrunner and possibly the de facto winner. The horrific rape controversy surrounding Parker resurfaced, and the film suddenly became a liability for distributor Fox Searchlight. The company made a completely boneheaded decision on how to handle the issue, and the film dropped on Oscar pundits' lists. Admittedly, there were some murmurs even back in January when the film had its successful Sundance run that The Birth of a Nation wasn't even good enough to be a strong Oscar contender. At this point, whether the film (coming out Oct 7) is a masterpiece or not is irrelevant; Nate Parker is out of the race.

Dev Patel, Lion

I'm (not so) secretly rooting for Dev Patel to get an Oscar nomination for the "found my parents through Google Earth" drama Lion. The report from the festivals was that the film was very well received. I think it would be fun to see a South Asian actor get a nomination for Best Actor because usually the #OscarsSoWhite is concerned with black actors. Joel Edgerton is also a likely nominee for Loving, and he could ride the film's success at Cannes all the way to a nomination. The actor has always been close to a nomination, but this year he might make the list finally.

There are a bunch of other possible nominees for Best Actor. None of them really have any heat this early in the race. And I'm sure the Best Actor race will ramp up in the coming months, especially as the films mentioned above are released. But for now, it looks like this year's Oscar race is all about the ladies. And honestly that's not a bad thing. Right now, I'm putting my money on Casey Affleck--sight unseen, of course. Even thought a white guy looks to be the winner, it seems very possible that the nominations list could have some people of color on it. That alone makes this year's Academy Awards one to be excited about.

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